Offsetting last September’s positive growth outlook, the current DHL Global Trade Barometer predicts that the overall Japanese trade is heading towards deflation. The slide of -5 points to 48 is mainly caused by shrinking air trade which drops -7 points to 42. Ocean trade is expected to almost come to a standstill, falling -4 points to a close-to-zero growth outlook at 51.

The air trade outlook is pessimistic due to dwindling air imports. The decline in imports of High Technology and Consumer Fashion Goods is expected to erode the moderate growth of Industrial Raw Materials and Machinery Parts. Air exports are lifted by Capital Equipment & Machinery, Land Vehicles & Parts and Chemicals & Products. However, Basic and Industrial Raw Materials and Machinery Parts continue to weigh down on air trade.

Ocean trade is spurred by import while export is showing signs of deceleration. Generally, ocean imports are expected to contract, with the exception of Basic Raw Materials – for which the outlook is bullish. Ocean exports of Industrial Raw Materials are cooling down while Basic Raw Materials and Land Vehicles & Parts remain sluggish.